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Fundamental analysis

Consumer Price Index

The CPI measures changes in consumer prices. An index level, a monthly change and an annual change are different figures.

Identify the series

For U.S. data, distinguish the all-items CPI from the measure excluding food and energy. Also record whether a comparison is seasonally adjusted. The BLS publishes multiple series; a figure without its series and reference period is incomplete.

Worked comparison

If an illustrative index rises from 200 to 206 over a year, its annual increase is 3%. If it moves from 205.5 to 206 in the latest month, that monthly increase is about 0.24%. Neither figure is an actual CPI release. They illustrate how different comparison periods produce different rates.

A release-reading checklist

Record the release date, observation month, series name, adjustment basis and comparison period. Keep any forecast source separate from the official observation. A change from a consensus expectation is not the same as a change from the previous month. Do not turn either into an automatic trading signal.

Sources & method

  1. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: CPI Questions and Answers

Sources support the referenced concepts. Numerical examples are hypothetical unless stated otherwise. A link does not imply endorsement.